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Funder of Cryptor Trust
Bitcoin enthusiast, Entrepreneur, Investor, Trader, Advisor, Investment Banker & Money Manager Funder of Cryptor Trust a Global Think Tank and investment group for Bitcoin and Crypto related assets world wide. Founder of Elliott Wave Technician. A financial advisory in forecasting & research of the financial market and societies. Funder of Cornupia Capital Ltd.a financial advisory service in mergers & acquisitions, offshore structures and corporate restructuring.
We all know, or at least we SHOULD know, that cryptocurrencies are not an investment. Right? The trouble is, ever since that famous $7 million bitcoin pizza, the crypto world seems to be divided between the early arrival millionaires, the wannabes, and the predators out to scam them. And there has been a very, very long list of scammers, hasn't there? Many of the names are well known, especially the ones in jail, or heading there. Trouble is, like a shark in a shoal of fish, they scared many away, especially the get-rich-quick crowd. Its not easy to watch your money evaporate, and the effect on the community as a whole is crippling, as the departing hordes do more damage to the cryptoconomy than the predators ever did. Over on /asicgroupbuy, we've had our share of disasters. We had one of our own lose over $7k of our money, and then disappear, in shame or guilt. It doesn't really matter which. We were into GAW's scam, though we got out with a profit. We were gobbled up by Moolah, and most recently by Chris's LTCgear scam. We've reached a point where people are saying there's nothing left to invest in. While cryptos aren't an investment, there are investments in the cryptosphere. Mining being an obvious one... but as we all know, the days of the small miner are well and truly over. The rewards are simply not enough to cover capital and operating costs. Don't believe me? Try it yourself, but be prepared to lose most or all of what you put in. And of course so-called 'cloud' mining is for the most part a massive con. Sure, they may pay out short term... After all, I paid for my ex-GAW Gridseeds thanks to profits from the Cointellect scam before they soured. But the numbers just don't stack up when you look hard. And yet, we all know there IS money being made in mining. Mostly by those huge, anonymous chinese mines we've all seen pictures and videos of. Noisy, hot, dank hellholes hidden in the jungle with thousands of screaming ASICs and a couple of guys running around 24/7 keeping them going and sleeping on the floor. But this kind of thing costs millions, and is way out of our league.
Or is it?
Yesterday, I was in town, picking up a batch of (physical, non-crypto) coins someone brought back from Sydney for me. And it was a glorious day, perfect for a leisurely stroll. I had been looking at the Bitcoin Group's IPO, after seeing that our new Prime Minister has kicked it off with an OnMarket Bookbuilds launch. I even linked the referral on my Facebook page, not that I expect anyone to ever use it. I read the Prospectus(Note: Specifically NOT available to US citizens) and was thinking of investing. So I thought "Why not drop by their office and pick up a paper copy? Makes the form easier to fill out if I decide to buy shares." Well, I gotta say I was impressed. I met much of the team, had a long chat with Sam, their CEO, and had all my hard questions answered. Ended up borrowing their WiFi to transfer a couple grand over for a small stake, and will likely increase it before the offer closes. In a nutshell, they're going to ramp up their existing mines in China and Iceland to around 13% of the total BTC hashrate. The Chinese mines are located in remote areas, adjacent to hydro power stations... apparently these stations can't sell their electricity onto the grid, so they've done really good deals to supply cheap power. Current ASICs are Antminer S5's, with a mix of S5's and the coming S7's making up the 50,000+ miners to be installed. They should be generating around $35 million a year, and although they won't be paying dividends, by reinvesting profits their market cap should increase nicely. At least that's the plan. This is a real company, very open and inviting. They even host the Melbourne Bitcoin Meetups and have a museum and facilities for public use. Here's a pic of Martin in the museum room which has examples of every miner ever built... an impressive collection of mostly black boxes. ;) http://i.imgur.com/YHWZKID.jpg
Note that this is not an invitation to invest in this particular company!
Apart from the fact that that would be illegal in the US (although there ARE ways for americans to buy in via proxies), this post is not about one company. Rather it is about the fact that real-world opportunities DO exist, and we shouldn't let the 'Wolves and Weasels'(to borrow GoodShibe's description of them) destroy our faith in the crypto world.
Nor is this about BTC.
While Bitcoin Mining is the current most profitable way to mine, that won't necessarily hold true indefinitely. We spoke at length about next year's halving, and although our opinion on the likely outcome differed, they do have plans in place either way. Sam told me he holds significant amounts of altcoins, including Doge, and is not averse to them. While the focus is now purely on BTC, that isn't necessarily graven in stone.
Stay Active, and Keep Your Eye On The Ball!
There are most definitely legitimate opportunities in the cryptosphere. Whether its Dogecoin or Bitcoin or something else. Whether its a public float of a mining company, a new exchange, or some other business, some very smart people are doing a lot of hard work creating value out there. But you'll never hear about it if you don't listen. Just like we all found out about that pizza long after it was too late to get aboard, if you don't pay attention, you will be sitting on the sidelines wishing you had known about the next big thing. Sure, /dogecoin isn't what it used to be. Neither are any of the other crypto subs. So what? That just makes them easier to keep an eye on, doesn't it? Stay subscribed. Look in regularly. And read (and maybe even upvote and comment in occasionally) all those posts that aren't about the good old days, or silly dog/pinapple pics. Maybe that way, THESE will become 'the good old days'. Think about that. :)
Did I miss anything? Do you have a Dogecoin community you want featured? Let me know! All of these places are seeds. Their potential is infinite. You do not have to ‘Leave’ Reddit in order to help build up these other communities. But take part in them. Take part in one of them. Make it your own. Each of these different communities offer Shibes different options, different speeds, different conversations. What will you do there? What will you build there? It’s 7:00AM EST and Sunday is FunDay, right? Right? Our Global Hashrate is holding at ~1170 Gigahashes per second and our Difficulty is up from ~13984 to ~15256. As always, I appreciate your support! GoodShibe
https://au.onmarketbookbuilds.com/offers/bitcoin-group-limited/independent-company-research-on-the-bitcoin-group-by-fat-prophets/ https://au.onmarketbookbuilds.com/offers/bitcoin-group-limited/company-research-on-the-bitcoin-group-by-wiseowl-sponsored/ These are research documents produced for the Bitcoin Group IPO. They make interesting reading, for a number of reasons (NB: The offer is only open to Australian residents. If that’s you, and you’re interested, ask me and I’ll tell you how to get onboard. If that’s not you, I think you’re now required to pluck out your eyeballs, burn them, and hand yourself in to the FBI for whatever they do to people for even thinking about such things). The primary point of interest here is just what goes into a successful mining operation nowadays. And note how thin the margins are, and how many risks have to be factored in. And it goes a long way towards explaining why us little guys don’t stand a chance now, and how it will only get worse. With over 54,000 miners being installed over the coming months, clearly the ASIC manufacturers are the only guaranteed winners here. Its also interesting to note the puny size of the BTC transactional volume and the scalability issues faced if cryptos ever manage to go mainstream. This is a problem that’s not going to go away easily, judging by the block size debacle debate. Oh, and don’t think this is just a Bitcoin thing. Because all the same issues apply equally to all cryptos. More so, since BTC is the most profitable coin by far.
What r/fatFIRE can learn from the book, Psychology of Money
My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in fatFIRE are examples of what's discussed in the book. No One's Crazy The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works. For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, what startups to join, what's the economy going to be like, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck. And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another. Luck & Risk The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin. Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers. Takeaways forfatFIRE: Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who joined a unicorn at Series A may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again. Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who joined WeWork may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky. Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now. On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March. Never Enough The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction. Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018. There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way. When you see someone who got 20x return on Shopify or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Shopify or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010. At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it. Tails, You Win Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events. At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average." In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies. Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get. And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong. When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good. Freedom The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays. Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered. People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along. Takeaways forfatFIRE: Most of you probably are working thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7. If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are what FatFire is all about. --- I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end. I like talking about these things on Twitter too. Edit: here's part 2 and here's a Twitter thread of the best snippets
Bitcoin Group has announced it will pursue an initial public offering (IPO) in Australia. If successful, it would be the first bitcoin company to offer its shares to the public in an IPO. Bitcoin Daily: Swiss Firm Is First To Get Approved For Blockchain-Based IPO; BCB Group Crypto Firm Granted License In UK By PYMNTS 60 60 PYMNTS.com PYMNTS Posted on January 30, 2020 January 30 ... The Bitcoin Fund, managed by 3iq, has completed an IPO and also merged with 3iq Bitcoin Trust. Founded in 2012, 3iq currently focuses on digital assets, disruptive technologies and the blockchain ... Bitcoin Group (ASX:BCG), an Australian startup engaged in the mining of bitcoins, is slated to IPO on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on November 11. It would become the first crypto industry company to go public through the IPO process. Bitcoin Group, one of the largest mining operators which has been planning its initial public offering (IPO) since 2014, announced that its IPO offer and
Every Friday at 1:00 PST - The Bitcoin Group, the American Original, for over the last ten seconds, the sharpest satoshis, the best bitcoins, the hardest cry... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Bitcoin is booming as the price soars to 5k. What role will the tech IPO bonanza play in the crypto markets this year? GIVEAWAY Twitter - https://twitter.com... The Bitcoin Group, the American Original, for over the last ten seconds, the sharpest satoshis, the best bitcoins, the hardest crypocurrency talk. The Bitcoin Group Play all Every Friday at 1:00 PST - The Bitcoin Group, the American Original, for over the last ten seconds, the sharpest satoshis, the best bitcoins, the hardest cryptocurrency ...